Market Metaphors

Kindleberger Phases × Shiller Narrative Economics

Tracing the evolution of metaphorical language in 158,666 financial news headlines (2009–2020) across five crisis events, mapping metaphor domains to the Minsky–Kindleberger panic cycle.

Metaphor Intensity & S&P 500

Weekly metaphor domain frequency (stacked) with S&P 500 overlay. Crisis windows highlighted.

Domain × Phase Density

Metaphor domain matches per 1,000 headlines across Kindleberger phases (all crises combined).

Top Keywords by Phase

Select a phase to see dominant metaphor vocabulary.

Boom vs Crash Domain Mix

How the metaphor palette shifts from expansion to collapse across crises.

Do Metaphors Lead or Follow?

Granger causality test: significance by lag (trading days).

Metaphor → Returns

Returns → Metaphor

Markets lead, metaphors follow. S&P 500 returns Granger-cause metaphor intensity at lags 5–6 trading days (p<0.05). No significant effect in the reverse direction. Journalists react to markets within one week.

COVID-19 Crisis: Domain Evolution

Daily metaphor domain activity (7-day moving average) across Kindleberger phases, Dec 2019 – May 2020.

DARKNESS_DEATH language builds through Distress (Feb–Mar 2020), while WATER_FLOOD surges in late Revulsion as "flow" dominates recovery narratives. ASCENT returns by May as markets stabilize.